Why winning the lottery is so difficult: the math explained
Odds of one in 50 million are hard to picture. We compare major lotteries and explain the probabilities in everyday terms.
The odds of winning a lottery jackpot are calculated using combinations: the number of different ways to choose the game's numbers. In Mega-Sena, there are 60 numbers and you pick six. There are exactly 50,063,860 possible combinations, and only one wins with a standard ticket.
Major lotteries compared
| Lottery | Format | Jackpot odds |
|---|---|---|
| Lotofácil (Brazil) | 15 out of 25 | 1 in 3,268,760 |
| Quina (Brazil) | 5 out of 80 | 1 in 24,040,016 |
| Mega-Sena (Brazil) | 6 out of 60 | 1 in 50,063,860 |
| EuroMillions (Europe) | 5 out of 50 + 2 out of 12 | 1 in 139,838,160 |
| Mega Millions (USA) | 5 out of 70 + 1 out of 24 | 1 in 290,472,336 |
| Powerball (USA) | 5 out of 69 + 1 out of 26 | 1 in 292,201,338 |
| SuperEnalotto (Italy) | 6 out of 90 | 1 in 622,614,630 |
Calculated by our editors for a standard ticket.
Putting one in 292 million in perspective
The United States has about 340 million people. Winning Powerball with one entry is similar to drawing one name from almost the entire US population and correctly guessing it. For Mega-Sena, the odds are like correctly identifying one randomly chosen person from almost all of Spain's 49 million residents.
No method, sequence or "hot number" changes these odds. Every draw is independent.
Common myths
"That number is overdue." Lottery balls have no memory. A number that has not appeared for months has exactly the same chance as every other number in the next draw.
"Playing the same numbers every time increases your chances." It doesn't. Every combination has equal odds in every draw.
"Some systems guarantee prizes." No system changes a combination's probability. Choosing more numbers increases the chance only in proportion to the higher cost.
What these numbers mean in practice
Lottery play is paid entertainment, not an investment. The expected value of a ticket is always below its purchase price because some revenue goes to public programs and operating costs. If you play, treat the expense like a movie ticket and read our guide to responsible gambling.